“Imitation is the Sincerest Form of Flattery” (Further Ramblings of a Layman [COVID]- 2)
April 19,
2020
Well, we are
in a Pandemic and it’s not really about “flattery”- it’s more about …
COPY WHAT SEEMS
TO WORK from past and current
experiences, regardless of personal
or political conflict, geographical boundaries or religion!
So, what
seems to be working?
1)
Mitigation
strategies-
a. Scale up COVID tests & diagnosis- doing large number of lab
diagnoses allow authorities to slow the spread of the infection by isolating
known cases while they are infectious, enabling treatment to be administered at
a far earlier stage
b. Increase easily available, random & free
testing
c.
“Test
and trace for the high-at-risk groups”, which means increasing the manufacture of local test kits
d.
Continue
to maintain social distancing
e.
Limit contact with older
people, they being more susceptible to the Virus
f.
Two
types of testing is required-
i.
Serology
tests- which will identify infected patients with antibodies (this will help determine who
is immune and help people get back to normal life)
ii.
Rapid-antigen test- to diagnose those who carry the virus
(without or with minimal symptoms)
a.
Open testing & drive-through centers in each of Karachi’s
- as an example – 178 Union Councils to screen as many people, as quickly, as
possible. All tests would be recorded
through their CNICs, immediately tested with temperature scan and throat swab. People who may have interacted with an
infected patient should report to testing centers for checking.
b. “R-0” (R-naught) is the number of new
infections an infected person passes on.
Only when R0 is less than 1
will the pandemic start reducing. So,
all mitigation strategies should continue “one month after you drive down the R-naught
to zero”.
2)
Increase
LOCAL supply chains so as to provide protective gear, supplies & equipment
to front line health workers & hospitals; and going hand-in-hand, continuous monitoring and
protection of all medical and other essential workers.
3)
Contact
Tracing- tracking travel history & all movements of every COVID patient so
as to find & test every person in contact with the patient. This will identify transmission networks and preempt
possible further carriers.
4) Use of Modern Technology &
Communications-
A
macro shift is needed from a patient-centered model to community-system care that
offers pandemic solutions for the entire population (with a specific emphasis
on home care). As mentioned in my earlier
article (https://dinshawavari.com/2020/04/07/a-laymans-thoughts-on-mitigation-strategies-covid/), self-quarantine
& home care should not be discounted- it will relieve the strain on hospitals
& health workers.
a.
An accurate communication system that disseminates
the movements of potentially infected people, in which geographical areas, etc. There should be ONE SOURCE of this
information and all you need to do is push it out to each of the Telco carriers
in the City for onwards distribution to the public. This will enable less contact between possible
affected and those not.
b. My brother’s suggestion was to use “easy-paisa”
& other such portals to disseminate the Federal & Provincial funds to
the needy & poor instead of cash payouts.
With almost 80% mobile subscribers in Pakistan, majority of the recipients
will be documented, leading to less fraud.
5)
A macro shift is needed from a patient-centered model to
community-system care that offers pandemic solutions for the entire population
(with a specific emphasis on home care).
As mentioned in my earlier article (https://dinshawavari.com/2020/04/07/a-laymans-thoughts-on-mitigation-strategies-covid/), self-quarantine & home
care should not be discounted- it will relieve the strain on hospitals &
health workers.
As before, the
views in this Paper are personal, from a series of publications
I recently studied-
·
(https://time.com/collection/finding-hope-coronavirus-pandemic/5820596/taiwan-coronavirus-lessons/)
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